Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
LT
71%
-245
ULM
29%
+245
Model expected score: LT 39.9 – ULM 29.2
Defensive Matchup Ratings
LT defensefaces ULM
vs QB
#64
#64 207.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#108
#108 167.0 yds/gm
vs WR
#64
#64 207.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#64
#64 207.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
ULM defensefaces LT
vs QB
#131
#131 268.2 yds/gm
vs RB
#137
#137 243.6 yds/gm
vs WR
#131
#131 268.2 yds/gm
vs TE
#131
#131 268.2 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.