Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
GAST
38%
+163
JMU
62%
-163
Model expected score: GAST 27.2 – JMU 32.9
Defensive Matchup Ratings
GAST defensefaces JMU
vs QB
#29
#29 174.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#54
#54 127.0 yds/gm
vs WR
#29
#29 174.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#29
#29 174.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
JMU defensefaces GAST
vs QB
#91
#91 225.4 yds/gm
vs RB
#24
#24 98.0 yds/gm
vs WR
#91
#91 225.4 yds/gm
vs TE
#91
#91 225.4 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.