Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
UNLV
36%
+178
AFA
64%
-178
Model expected score: UNLV 20.2 – AFA 27.3
Defensive Matchup Ratings
UNLV defensefaces AFA
vs QB
#117
#117 249.8 yds/gm
vs RB
#61
#61 134.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#117
#117 249.8 yds/gm
vs TE
#117
#117 249.8 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
AFA defensefaces UNLV
vs QB
#17
#17 162.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#50
#50 124.3 yds/gm
vs WR
#17
#17 162.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#17
#17 162.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.