Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
SJSU
66%
-194
UTEP
34%
+194
Model expected score: SJSU 30.2 – UTEP 22.1
Defensive Matchup Ratings
SJSU defensefaces UTEP
vs QB
#106
#106 234.2 yds/gm
vs RB
#68
#68 141.3 yds/gm
vs WR
#106
#106 234.2 yds/gm
vs TE
#106
#106 234.2 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
UTEP defensefaces SJSU
vs QB
#95
#95 227.8 yds/gm
vs RB
#110
#110 169.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#95
#95 227.8 yds/gm
vs TE
#95
#95 227.8 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.