Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
UNM
83%
-488
HAW
17%
+488
Model expected score: UNM 34.5 – HAW 16.1
Defensive Matchup Ratings
UNM defensefaces HAW
vs QB
#11
#11 154.8 yds/gm
vs RB
#32
#32 100.8 yds/gm
vs WR
#11
#11 154.8 yds/gm
vs TE
#11
#11 154.8 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
HAW defensefaces UNM
vs QB
#93
#93 226.4 yds/gm
vs RB
#95
#95 158.2 yds/gm
vs WR
#93
#93 226.4 yds/gm
vs TE
#93
#93 226.4 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.