Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
FSU
15%
+567
MIA
85%
-567
Model expected score: FSU 20.4 – MIA 40.0
Defensive Matchup Ratings
FSU defensefaces MIA
vs QB
#114
#114 244.7 yds/gm
vs RB
#106
#106 165.5 yds/gm
vs WR
#114
#114 244.7 yds/gm
vs TE
#114
#114 244.7 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
MIA defensefaces FSU
vs QB
#64
#64 207.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#1
#1 42.6 yds/gm
vs WR
#64
#64 207.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#64
#64 207.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
Tap a player to expand
QB
Ashton Daniels
FSU · 3 props
+
Pass Yds
Line 194.5 · Avg 220.0 · L5 3/5
O -121U -115
Rush Yds
Line 35.5 · Avg 53.8 · L5 3/5
O -U -
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.7 · L5 4/5
O -101U +102
QB
Darian Mensah
MIA · 2 props
+
Pass Yds
Line 269.5 · Avg 287.6 · L5 2/5
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.4 · L5 2/5
O +249U -244
RB
Mark Fletcher Jr.
MIA · 4 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 84.5 · Avg 76.8 · L5 2/4
O -115U -115
Rec Yds
Line 6.5 · Avg 13.0 · L5 2/2
O +104U -102
Receptions
Line 1.5 · Avg 2.0 · L5 2/2
O +120U -185
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.2 · L5 3/4
O -217U +221
RB
Ousmane Kromah
FSU · 3 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 57.5 · Avg 94.2 · L5 5/5
O -122U -115
Rec Yds
Line 14.5 · Avg 16.2 · L5 2/5
O +100U +100
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.8 · L5 3/5
O +153U -152
RB
Javian Mallory
MIA · 2 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 34.5 · Avg 57.8 · L5 2/5
O -124U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.6 · L5 2/5
O +210U -208
RB
Quintrevion Wisner
FSU · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.0 · L5 0/5
O +1201U -1111
RB
Jordan Lyle
MIA · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.0 · L5 0/1
O +343U -333
RB
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey
MIA · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.5 · L5 1/2
O +100U -
RB
Girard Pringle Jr.
MIA · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.2 · L5 1/5
O +353U -345
RB
Amari Thomas
FSU · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.0 · L5 0/3
O +100U -
WR
Cooper Barkate
MIA · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 56.5 · Avg 48.2 · L5 2/5
O -120U -115
Receptions
Line 4.5 · Avg 3.8 · L5 1/5
O -115U +117
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.8 · L5 4/5
O +134U -133
WR
Duce Robinson
FSU · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 48.5 · Avg 49.0 · L5 2/5
O -115U -115
Receptions
Line 3.5 · Avg 2.8 · L5 1/5
O +116U -154
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.3 · L5 2/5
O +323U -312
Hit rates are last-5 games vs the listed line. Lines move - check your book. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.
Hit rates are last-5 games vs the listed line. Lines move - check your book. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.