Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
ND
57%
-133
BYU
43%
+133
Model expected score: ND 28.7 – BYU 25.3
Defensive Matchup Ratings
ND defensefaces BYU
vs QB
#14
#14 158.2 yds/gm
vs RB
#4
#4 58.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#14
#14 158.2 yds/gm
vs TE
#14
#14 158.2 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
BYU defensefaces ND
vs QB
#29
#29 174.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#11
#11 80.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#29
#29 174.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#29
#29 174.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
Tap a player to expand
QB
CJ Carr
ND · 3 props
+
Pass Yds
Line 231 · Avg 229.7 · L5 4/5
O -U -
Rush Yds
Line 5.5 · Avg 13.8 · L5 4/5
O +104U -102
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.5 · L5 3/5
O +277U -270
QB
Bear Bachmeier
BYU · 3 props
+
Pass Yds
Line 184.5 · Avg 206.6 · L5 4/5
O -121U -
Rush Yds
Line 36.5 · Avg 47.8 · L5 3/5
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.8 · L5 3/5
O +148U -147
RB
Aneyas Williams
ND · 2 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 35.5 · Avg 49.0 · L5 2/5
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.8 · L5 3/5
O +254U -250
RB
Preston Rex
BYU · 2 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 22.5 · Avg 23.0 · L5 2/5
O -118U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.4 · L5 2/5
O +275U -270
RB
Jonaz Walton
ND · 2 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 59.5 · Avg 81.8 · L5 3/5
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.4 · L5 1/5
O +113U -112
RB
Nolan James Jr.
ND · 2 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 34.5 · Avg 55.8 · L5 3/5
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.3 · L5 5/5
O +165U -164
RB
Journee Tonga
BYU · 2 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 29.5 · Avg 44.0 · L5 2/4
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.5 · L5 2/4
O +259U -256
RB
Devaughn Eka
BYU · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.3 · L5 1/3
O +100U -
WR
Legend Glasker
BYU · 4 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 6.5 · Avg 16.6 · L5 4/5
O +106U -105
Rec Yds
Line 34.5 · Avg 75.6 · L5 4/5
O -115U -115
Receptions
Line 3.5 · Avg 3.8 · L5 2/5
O +120U -120
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.0 · L5 3/5
O +319U -312
WR
Kyler Kasper
BYU · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 32.5 · Avg 35.6 · L5 3/5
O -115U -115
Receptions
Line 2.5 · Avg 2.8 · L5 3/5
O +112U -111
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.6 · L5 2/5
O +436U -435
WR
Micah Gilbert
ND · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 38.5 · Avg 63.0 · L5 3/5
O -125U -125
Receptions
Line 2.5 · Avg 3.2 · L5 2/5
O -138U +104
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.3 · L5 2/5
O +257U -250
WR
Jordan Faison
ND · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 55.5 · Avg 64.5 · L5 2/5
O -115U -115
Receptions
Line 4.5 · Avg 4.7 · L5 2/5
O +128U -127
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.7 · L5 2/5
O +166U -164
Hit rates are last-5 games vs the listed line. Lines move - check your book. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.
Hit rates are last-5 games vs the listed line. Lines move - check your book. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.