Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
MIZ
52%
-108
MISS
48%
+108
Model expected score: MIZ 31.9 – MISS 30.8
Defensive Matchup Ratings
MIZ defensefaces MISS
vs QB
#100
#100 231.2 yds/gm
vs RB
#16
#16 88.6 yds/gm
vs WR
#100
#100 231.2 yds/gm
vs TE
#100
#100 231.2 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
MISS defensefaces MIZ
vs QB
#70
#70 210.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#126
#126 194.8 yds/gm
vs WR
#70
#70 210.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#70
#70 210.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
Tap a player to expand
QB
Trinidad Chambliss
MISS · 3 props
+
Pass Yds
Line 289.5 · Avg 287.0 · L5 3/5
O -115U -115
Rush Yds
Line 23.5 · Avg 22.6 · L5 2/5
O -115U -115
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.0 · L5 4/5
O +136U -135
QB
Austin Simmons
MIZ · 2 props
+
Pass Yds
Line 259.5 · Avg 239.0 · L5 3/5
O +100U +101
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.0 · L5 0/5
O +522U -500
RB
Jamal Roberts
MIZ · 4 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 116.5 · Avg 138.0 · L5 4/5
O -101U +102
Rec Yds
Line 16.5 · Avg 16.8 · L5 2/5
O -114U -114
Receptions
Line 2.5 · Avg 2.2 · L5 2/5
O -146U +110
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.3 · L5 2/5
O +100U -238
RB
Kewan Lacy
MISS · 4 props
+
Rush Yds
Line 59.5 · Avg 57.5 · L5 2/4
O -119U -130
Rec Yds
Line 10 · Avg 5.3 · L5 1/3
O -U -
Receptions
Line 2.5 · Avg 2.3 · L5 1/3
O +140U -188
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.2 · L5 4/4
O -135U +137
RB
Makhi Frazier
MISS · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.0 · L5 0/4
O +257U -256
RB
JT Lindsey
MISS · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.0 · L5 0/5
O +379U -370
RB
Xai'Shaun Edwards
MIZ · 1 props
+
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.2 · L5 1/5
O +100U -500
WR
Horatio Fields
MISS · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 32.5 · Avg 38.0 · L5 3/5
O -115U -115
Receptions
Line 3.5 · Avg 3.4 · L5 3/5
O +104U -138
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.2 · L5 1/5
O +310U -303
WR
Cayden Lee
MIZ · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 95.5 · Avg 102.7 · L5 3/5
O -114U -114
Receptions
Line 7.5 · Avg 7.0 · L5 2/5
O -108U +109
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.8 · L5 3/5
O +129U -127
WR
Traylon Ray
MISS · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 31.5 · Avg 46.2 · L5 2/5
O -101U +102
Receptions
Line 3.5 · Avg 3.4 · L5 2/5
O +142U -192
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 0.2 · L5 1/5
O +308U -303
WR
Donovan Olugbode
MIZ · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 49.5 · Avg 81.4 · L5 4/5
O +100U +100
Receptions
Line 3.5 · Avg 5.2 · L5 4/5
O -120U +120
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.2 · L5 5/5
O +237U -233
WR
Deuce Alexander
MISS · 3 props
+
Rec Yds
Line 85.5 · Avg 100.6 · L5 2/5
O -115U -115
Receptions
Line 6.5 · Avg 6.4 · L5 3/5
O +124U -166
Anytime TD
Line Yes · Avg 1.0 · L5 4/5
O -114U +115
Hit rates are last-5 games vs the listed line. Lines move - check your book. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.
Hit rates are last-5 games vs the listed line. Lines move - check your book. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.